It was a Gartley but it just failed Print
Written by Site admin   

05/08/20

It was a Gartley, but it just failed... 

The latest course, Great Reversals, includes many of the standard, and not so well known, chart patterns that we see frequently. Triangles, Wedges, Flags and a-b-c's, etc., are the basic fare that traders use.
Whilst no pattern will always be reliable, they all occasionally have their day. But one of the interesting features is that those that fail - having built up traders hopes of a text book break out move - more often, become a great fade trade.
The USDCAD can be tricky to trade and catches out many traders with false, fade moves against the dominant trend. It has popped up, then sideways, then down,  since early June, but is still in a down trend since the middle of March.
The longer term weekly chart made an explosive up move in March as the oil price collapsed. Since then it has dropped all the way back to the 2019 support zone, where it started with a large a-b-c pattern, which then morphed into a potential Gartley.
Gartley within a Gartley
Yesterday, the four hour chart revealed another potential Gartley pattern as price recognised (briefly) the all important PRZ - potential reversal zone.
It then failed, dropping lower on the day negating that inner four hour Gartley with a clear bearish engulfing candle which, in turn, triggered  a sell stop order.
The next major level was the low on 29th July and further back on the 19th June. This Hammer day resulted in  a reasonable a-b-c rally of 200 pips.
Overnight the USDCAD sliced through those lows confirming the two failed Gartleys. Failed patterns, particularly against a major trend, so often give the best trades as described inGreat Reversals.
Now the low of the 19th June has given way. It's in a fifth wave that could take the USDCAD on down to the next significant round number of 1.30.
Could it bounce again and reverse the trend?
Fifth waves are well known as the last gasp wave as momentum runs out of steam. And, whilst the weekly chart now shows a fifth wave, look closely - the daily chart is now init'sfifth!
So yes, at some point the trend will reverse and traders need to be 'on their toes' and ready. But, until it does, the trend is still very much the traders' friend.
Technical Analysis is all very well, but price is driven by more than just a pretty picture. That picture reflects the hopes, fears and biases of all those who are trading and, of course, the underlying reality of supply and demand.
The Canadian economy has a very large oil sector. It's their largest export and contributes about 10% to GDP and tax revenues. So, when the world oil price rises it's great for Canada, but not so good when it tanks, as happened this April.
Crude oil has since recovered strongly, all the way back to fill the breakaway gap from when the Russians decided not to cut production with OPEC at the end of February.
Despite the global slow down from the virus response, which  has much reduced real oil consumption, the oil price remains supported by the very strong vested interests of producing companies and nations.
To see where the Canadian dollar is going, just take a look at Crude oil.If Crude breaks into a new down move, that will bad news for the Canadian dollar and the US$ will likely soar against it. If oil continues to rise, the USDCAD will likely stay within its down trend. 
Best regards.