Banner

TradersClass

Superior Trading Skills through Education

 
BlogSection
How to be a professional trader Print
Written by Site admin   

How to be a professional trader

The world we inhabit is dominated by the 80-20 principle.

Vilfredo Pareto changed the way we looked at many things, specifically micro-economics which he linked to social factors which went on to become popularised in recent years. Pareto observed the "law of the vital few". Approximately 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

Nowhere is this more apparent than a glance at the small print at the bottom of every spreading betting website. They are now required to publish how many clients lose - you guessed it, around 80% of their customers lose money.

So, what of the remaining 20% or so?

There are is no shortage of horror stories from the 80%. Many have been there. This article describes the spiral into despair which results from marketing hype and personal hubris, the Superman effect, following modest successes. 

Reality? A recent research report from Psyquation indicated that fewer than 20% become profitable after two years and only 1.2% are successful enough to make trading their career. Sobering stuff for those new to the game, but is it gambling? Thanks go to long term investor Gary Scott for the article below:

Trading and Investing is gambling.

Until we admit this, we cannot invest like the pros. However, once we recognize that every investment is a bet, can we become a professional investor instead of a stock and bond gambler?
The fact is professional gamblers are not really gamblers. They are investing pros who cash in on the imbalances of gamblers. They invest in bets instead of stocks and bonds.

Read more...
 
Why do we do it.... Print
Written by Site admin   

Why do we do it,

letting small losses become big ones?

Warren Buffet was known to answer the question: What are the most important trading rules?

His standard answer was: Rule one - don't lose money. Rule two: Never forget rule one.

It's all in the interpretation. Did he mean 'Don't lose money on trades' which some may translate as

(A); 'I may have a losing trade on but I'll hold it because it may bounce back into profit and then I've followed rule one'.

Or, (B) perhaps it was just an off the cuff quip, meaning that to survive as a trader or investor we need to make more overall then we lose?

Letting winners run and cut losses short

This is the self evident rule we need to achieve to ensure we can make profits overall. The only problem is that the

Read more...
 
ESMA 1st August!!!!!! Print
Written by Site admin   

At long last ESMA has set the day.

From 1st August 2018, retail traders will have to pony up more margin. Gone are the days when brokers were falling over themselves to give the 'Best', lowest, margin rates that allowed almost anyone to control a big slice of the pie with a miniscule account.

I rember the story of the guy who opened an account on a Thursday with £8,000. By close of play on Friday night, he had run it up to £100,000 plus, on the Dow. Margins were crazy low and he was able to use the open trade profit as more margin! By close of play Monday the day put in a modest correction. Result, he was wiped and owed the broker money which they enforced. A great introduction to spread betting.

All that is no longer possible, illegal within ESMA. The new regs take us back and beyond how it was when I started trading Forex, 50:1 margin was the maximum anyone offered, in line with US regulations. Now Forex is 30:1.

This is the gist:

For major FX pairs, leverage is adjusted to 30:1 (3.33%).

Suppose GBPUSD is trading at 1.3200, £1 per pip will be 13200 * 3.33% * 1 = £ 440. At £10 per pip it's £4,440

For indicies, leverage will be adjusted to 20:1 (5%).

Suppose WS30 is trading at 24000, £1 per pip will be 24000 * 5% * 1 = £ 1200. At £10 per pip you will need a minimum of £12,000.

Unrealised gains can no longer be used as margin and the broker has to close out your position if the market runs against you and your margin funds drop by 50%.

One of the spread betting companies admit that the old system encouraged over trading (punters lost money has corrections took them out and so spraed bet companies made huge profits). They now admit that clients who trade well within their account size are more succesful.

So what to do now??

Under trade under trade!

 
Mario lobs a grenade into the FX market! Print
Written by Site admin   
Friday, 15 June 2018 08:42

Mario had some fun with the markets yesterday.

I had several members asking for my take on the Euro/Dollar reversal
yesterday as a result of the ECB grenade thrown into the markets.

That was all down to Mario Draghi, not following on from Powell on
Wednesday and tightening or at least accelerating tapering. The market was
convinced he would, then the bombshell was saying no rate rises until 2019
caught the market on the wrong side of trades.

The positives are that that created several Key Reversals in the EUR pairs,
CHF and Cable. The Euro hovered at the point of reversing giving some time
to get re-positioned.

From here, the dollar weakness has been reset to strength following through
on Powell's Wednesday words that they are convinced the US economy is
strong. Mario's actions confirm he believes Europe's to be weak. The
consequence of this is that we could well get some decent trends in the
likes of EURJPY and AUDUSD that was already the weak currency, etc.

That's for the next week or so. Today, Friday 15th, is profit taking day so far with
modest rallies across the board, so now is the time to look for rallies that might
give much better short entries.

 
Next Wednesday, up they go again... Print
Written by Site admin   
Thursday, 07 June 2018 20:01

The consensus is the Federal Reserve, at it's June FOMC meeting Wednesday 13th, will confirm the next US interest rate increase, from 1.75 to 2%:

fomcjune18

The consensus, 'dot' plot and forward guidance is as plain as day. But, today, the bond market just had a hissy fit...

30yrbondjune18

The standard 30 year US T Bond has been tumbling down this year. Interest rates do the opposite of course, moving on up as bonds slide. But just look at the chart. The chart bottomed on May 18th, rallied then tumbled again, until today, June 7th.

The 4 hour chart shows a major key revesal day, lower early in the day then higher than yesterday. Key reversals (or the candle version, Bullish Engulfing) are one of the strongest one day signals in the market.

What does this mean?

Maybe nothing more than traders liquidating their previous short position profits, just in case something unexpected comes out of the Fed minutes.

Or - the market just got the idea the Fed will change it's mind and delay the increase. The dollar will tank and stock markets will soar even higher. Stranger things have happened, just when everyone least expect it.

 

 
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>
Page 10 of 18

Members Login Form



From the blog

Loads of Money...

Loads of Money -

 

Keep the stimulus rolling Joe...

Dear Trader and Clickevents reader

We've almost made it to the end of January '21. Market volatility is low, Brexit got 'done', Vaccines are rolling out and Joe's about to get the $ printing presses rolling again - it's stimulus to infinity folks....

No worries now that Orange man bad has skulked away, we must be almost to Nirvana. But is it all just too perfect in stock markets? Could that low volatility be telling us something we don't want to hear?

Commentators had beenwaxing on about how big the stimulus package will be, from $1.2 trillion to more than $2 trillion, according to some.

However, words of caution are now rumbling as we are reminded from Goldman Sachs, it's not yet a done deal.

Historically, the first presidential year often brings recession and tumbling markets so the previous administration can get the blame, and there's plenty of that flying about!

Read on for a reasoned argument from Elliott Wave International and a no cost deal, below....

----------

Stock Market: Why You Should Prepare for a Jump in Volatility This volatility indicator "has made a series of higher lows" -- and it's not a good sign

By Elliott Wave International

Stock market volatility is like a roller-coaster ride -- extreme ups and downs.

However, unlike thrill-seeking roller-coaster riders who often rise from their seats after the ride with a smile, investors often exit with a frown.

That's because extreme volatility after a stock rally often ends with prices much lower.

Having said that, many investors -- even professionals -- do not anticipate a jump in volatility right now.

Indeed, the San Diego Union-Tribune asked the senior principal of a financial advisory firm on Jan. 15:

Will 2021 be a volatile year for the stock market?

He replied:

NO: If 2020 had not been a volatile stock year -- what with the pandemic, recession, elections, and riots -- then it is reasonable to expect that 2021 should be relatively stable.

Yet, a key stock market indicator is revealing.

Here are insights from the Jan. 15 U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets:

The chart shows the DJIA in the top graph and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) in the bottom graph. We've inverted the scale of the VIX so it aligns with stock prices.

This index measures investors' expectations for market volatility for the coming 30 days. Most of the time, the VIX trends and reverses with stocks.

When the behavior changes, it's time to watch both stocks and the VIX closely.The most recent intraday low in the VIX occurred at 19.51 on November 27. Since then, the DJIA has made a series of higher highs while the VIX has made a series of higher lows. This divergence is denoted with a red trend line on the chart.

The Jan. 15 U.S. Short Term Update goes on to describe a "clue" in spotting when volatility might start to spike.

Moreover, subscribers are provided with the Elliott wave labeling of the DJIA, which provides even more precision in ascertaining when to expect a change of character in the market.

Right now, you can read EWI’s U.S. market analysis FREE inside the State of the U.S. Markets FreePass event.

Now through February 3, you’ll see what Elliott waves show next for U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, gold and more

Follow the link to see everything that’s included and join now: State of the U.S. Markets FreePass

Don't miss it...

Kind regards

Check these links

  • JoomlaWorks Simple Image Rotator