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It Started with a Kiss - three in fact.... Print
Written by Site admin   
Wednesday, 11 September 2019 10:16

It started with a kiss - three in fact.....

Here we are again.

Those Westminster politicos have left us in yet another muddle, only more so. And Boris? it's a re-run of Theresa.

Off he popped to Eire then it's across to the continent. He's just what Barnier and crew wanted: A ham-strung, cornered British PM who, it seems, can now only grovel for one or two crumbs of improvement to Theresa's deal.

Leaving all that idiocy to one side, this week we have had some amazingly good economic news.

On Monday GDP improved by 0.3%, better than the 0.1% the market expected. Manufacturing production was also better at 0.3% against an expectation of -0.3%!

Today, Tuesday, we are treated to better than expected unemployment numbers and an average earnings increase. Mark Carney, talking this morning, seemed less concerned about the UK than with the slow down in global trade.

So what of the UK stock market?

Whilst the GBP has been rallying the FTSE100 has moved a little, but is lagging behind US and European stock markets.

Is now the time to be wading in?

The waves are suggesting a substantial move is due. A series of down waves has ended with a flat and three kisses.

The new up wave has broken above the last major lower high, a good sign. A possible corrective wave two will have completed if the Footsie can move above Monday's high. That would be the start of the money wave, W3.

As with most technical patterns, a triple bottom fails as many times as it leads to a reversal. But what this chart is telling us is that the FTSE is not yet ready to collapse - as long as it stays above the red line!

Mark Carney stated the obvious during his talk: Once the Brexit outcome is settled, major moves and investment is likely, given the last three years of uncertainty. The big question is, how much longer will the uncertainty last?

Perhaps we are about to see investors not waiting for certainty any longer.

 
Want to See What's Next for the Economy? Try This.... Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 28 July 2019 07:49

Want to See What's Next for the Economy? Try This....

 

On Monday 15th July, US stock markets made a new all time high. Does this also mean that the US economy is doing just fine?

The US Federal Reserve believe so despite the naysayers who so often tell us the 'real' economy is about to collapse into recession. Next Wednesday, the last day of July, is Fed day when many commentators believe it is highly likely there will be an interest rate reversal.

We've had a stream of quarter point rises. For some, the expectation is now for at least a quarter point cut, maybe more. Will this be enough to save off recession and keep the market buzzing to new highs?

Read on for the Socionomic view from Elliott Wave International...

Don't listen to the naysayers -- there IS a way to forecast the general health of the economy. This method has repeatedly proven itself.

Yes, you can anticipate the likelihood of a recession, even a depression -- or, conversely, when major economic measures -- like jobs -- will be robust.

That surefire way is the performance of the stock market.

That's right, despite the widespread belief that the economy drives the stock market, it's the stock market which leads the economy. Why not the other way around? Because the economy is a slow boat.

Read more...
 
Stocks up and away - now China is 'back on track' Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 30 June 2019 08:53

The mood music from the G20 has just made a dramatic change.

Trump's tweets of the last weeks and months has been full of confrontation but all that switched 180 degrees this weekend.

It's mainly been how he will add more tariffs on Chinese inports into the USA and the stock market got a severe case of the jitters, despite Fed chair Powell moving to a dovish stance on interest rates.

The news this weekend has changed all that. Trump folds on Huawei and has agreed to re-start talks.

The market will love these headlines and, as the chart shows, started it's next bull wave on Friday. Wave traders have been ready, watching the wave count followed by an a-b-c. This market is not collapsing.

Monday is 1st July, it's going to be quite a week and month!

dax1stjuly19

 
You load 16 tons and whaddyget? Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 16 June 2019 08:47

You load 16 tons and whaddyget?

What Kondratieff is telling us..

Way back in the days of wind up gramophones, my first 78 was that great number by Merle Travis. Reading an article this morning it resonated as China is said to have added just under 16 tons of Goldto it's reserves.

Maybe it's just the Gold bugs dropping bullish articles around the internet in an attempt to pump up prices. Perhaps they are the same people who tell us the Fed keep dumping massive numbers of Gold sell contracts whenever the price rallies.

Read more...
 
Who will win this trade war? Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 09 June 2019 09:15

Who will win this trade war?

Will Trump give way, roll over and save the talks by winding back on the latest tariff hike, or will the Chinese compromise and agree to curb their expanding technology sector?

Trump has an ego that won't let go and the Chinese cannot lose face, hence the impasse. This is as high a stakes game as ever there was. The latest salvo from China describing the US position as "naked economic terrorism" sets the scene for further escalation.

Read more...
 
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From the blog

Patience could be about to pay off

21/09/2010


Patience could be
    about to pay off...
 
Dear Trader and Clickevents reader
The holiday season turmoil caused many of us to change plans and patiently accept that this was to be a very different year.
For me, it wasn't just adjusting to Covid rules but also the weather. A sailing trip which should have taken in Plymouth had to be cut short, with what turned out to be a very pleasant, but storm bound week, in Brixham enjoying the local brew and cream teas, etc..
Patience
That old proverb: "Patience is a virtue" could be about to work to the advantage of USDCAD traders who have been patiently waiting for a reversal to develop.
Dating from way back in the fourth or fifth century, the proverb has served those who understand it's simple message very well.
Patience is usually in short supply in the 'gun slinging' trading community and those traders who don't discover its virtues find it can be quite a short career!
Canadian dollar
My last newsletter in early August featured the Canadian dollar and its linkage with the price of oil. If all other influences remain static: Oil up, Canadian dollar up, US dollar down, and vice versa.
Throughout August oil just kept rallying up and up, reaching its peak on the last day of the month. And then it collapsed by seven dollars, a 16% tumble.
Over to the USDCAD chartand we should expect to see a similar move if the linkage, the correlation, is working. August saw the US dollar falling against the Canadian as oil rose.
Technically, it was in a mature fifth down wave coming into a support zone and ready for a trend reversal..... (all explained in the Great Reversals course and the twice weekly TC videos).
Right on cue, at the start of trading the very next day, 1st September, as the oil price peaked, so did the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
What's happening now?
It's a potential reversal, possibly a major one, but for now it has formed an inverse Head and Shoulder pattern.
If price action today should close above the blue neckline it could run through more than 200 pips worth $2,000 trading just one contract. Traders Class video update members are already in on the action!
If you missed the previous, early August, newsletterwhich explained why we were expecting a reversal, just request it by hitting 'reply'.
Best regards.

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