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And the Gold & Silver charts Print
Written by Site admin   

20/07/2020

The Charts and Gold?

It becomes a one way bet. But beware, Gold is always vulnerable to a twitchy Federal Reserve which might want to knock it back from time to time, particularly as it's within a whisker of the 2011 high.

Does it have a target?

These are always difficult to predict once past old highs. However, there is an alternative view involving an eventual new Gold standard, as Jim Rickardssuggests here.

For traders, Silver just might be the better bet.As mentioned at the start of the year, Silver has been under-priced in relation to gold. The Silver/Gold ratio meanders historically at around the 60 level, but has recently been as high as double that at 120+.

The ratio is now settling back into a down trend, currently at 93. The Silver chart is way behind Gold. Today it's starting a catch up that could well have long legs as the ratio gradually slips back to its historical norms.

Inflation has only one way to go.Yes, there is clearly a global down turn in trade and hence GDP growth is unlikely to come back to 2% any time soon, many see this as a drag on Gold, but.....

Inflation likes reduced supply (companies closed down, global supply lines cut back, etc.). It also likes increased demand and purchasing power from greater money availability. Responses from governments are supplying both in bucket loads.

The 'Helicopter' money andModern Monetary Theorybrigade are seeing their dreams come true. As long as money, and it's purchasing power, is handed out without any corresponding increase in real economic growth, the real arbiter of value, the Gold and Silver price, has only one way to go.

 

From the blog

KISS Trading - Keeping it Simple...and Safe....

Dear Trader and Clickevents reader

I guess we all have a natural naivety built into our DNA. We like to believe what we are told, particularly if we respect the source of the telling. It's also a herd thing. If lots of people are told the same thing, they tend to start agreeing with each other. After all, it must true if everyone believes it.

Far too frequently our beliefs turn out to be the opposite of reality. Central Bankers, politicians and economic gurus' words, statements and policies frequently prove to be the opposite of what actually happens.

As with many things, personal naivety has a spectrum. Ranging from 'I believe everything and everyone', through to the opposite, totally sceptical view, of believing nothing unless seen and experienced first hand.

Way back, in my youth, I had a spell in the car trade that taught me everything I needed to know about supply and demand, pricing and presentation. I rapidly realised I could never believe anyone's description of how wonderful was the condition of their trade in car!

I soon learned to believe 0% of what I heard and no more than 50% of what I could see. A useful policy for anyone trading the markets.

Read more...

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