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The Bi-polar zigzag Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 09 June 2019 09:09

It's all about China (again)

Plus, don't miss the discount ends Tuesday

The stock and currency markets have been locked in a bi-polar zig zag. It's the China trade talks, or lack of them, that powers the market. It zigs up when ever the mood music is good, then zags down again into depression as the two sides appear as intractable as ever. And that's what just happened this week as the doom intensified:

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Stock Market Manipulation Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 05 May 2019 08:36

Stock market manipulation

The second story is how the stock market is about to collapse. The story is getting a little stale now as each mini sell off leads to another rally. Is it because the US Fed has put on hold any more rate rises or is it because of the impending wonderful US-China trade deal, etc?

Back in 1982 stock market manipulation was made legal. Not all manipulation of course but just share buy backs by companies. US congress is now getting hot and bothered. They have only just realised that Trumps tax cuts, and offshore repatriation of overseas company profits, were spent buying back their own shares, not paid out as special dividends. And so they want to ban buybacks again.

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KISS Trading - Keeping it Simple...and Safe.... Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 05 May 2019 08:17

Dear Trader and Clickevents reader

I guess we all have a natural naivety built into our DNA. We like to believe what we are told, particularly if we respect the source of the telling. It's also a herd thing. If lots of people are told the same thing, they tend to start agreeing with each other. After all, it must true if everyone believes it.

Far too frequently our beliefs turn out to be the opposite of reality. Central Bankers, politicians and economic gurus' words, statements and policies frequently prove to be the opposite of what actually happens.

As with many things, personal naivety has a spectrum. Ranging from 'I believe everything and everyone', through to the opposite, totally sceptical view, of believing nothing unless seen and experienced first hand.

Way back, in my youth, I had a spell in the car trade that taught me everything I needed to know about supply and demand, pricing and presentation. I rapidly realised I could never believe anyone's description of how wonderful was the condition of their trade in car!

I soon learned to believe 0% of what I heard and no more than 50% of what I could see. A useful policy for anyone trading the markets.

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Another great trade & It's the interest rate differential Print
Written by Site admin   
Wednesday, 06 March 2019 19:21

Another great trade and a special deal for you below...

At the recent London Forex Show I talked about some of the key issues that impact and move the major currencies. Amongst these were, will US interest rates keep rising and will the US Dollar strengthen or weaken.

The talking heads have told us all about how the US$ is doomed. It's the trillions of US debt they say, and expectations of a US recession kicking off this year.

And then the big one is the global petro dollar decline. China and Russia can now by-pass the US$ strangle hold on world energy markets and trade in Renimbi, Roubles and Euro's.

And then there is the Donald. Whenever he has an audience he tells us that the "gentleman at the fed likes a strong dollar". Clearly, Trump wants it to weaken to make US exports cheaper than the competition and keep 'his' stock market boom going.

The USDJPY just ignored the dollar doomsters...

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Australian Banks - Oh boy! Print
Written by Site admin   

It's gradually dawning on the Reserve Bank of Australia that they have a problem.

The big four Aussie banks are holding around 85% percent of all Aussie home mortages.

As worldwide interest rates were creeping up throughout 2018, repayment costs have increased at the same time as housing prices are falling back. No great problem for those who bought property a decade and more ago.

The problem is for those who invested in the last few years. Very soon a good many mortgages will be in negative equity. If, or when, mortgage defaults increase, bank capitalisations will tumble and it could become a spiral, starting slowly and then accelerating across the real estate, mortgage and banking sectors with the predictable effect on the Australian dollar.

 For a full assesment of the bind Ausralian banks are in, click and listen to this video from Chris at Casey Resaearch and Martin North of Digital Finance Analytics.

 
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From the blog

Silver follows the rules....

Following the rules.....

We're still here!

WW3 or something equally dreadful didn't happen despite the headlines.

There's an old saying 'you don't hear the bullet that gets you' and the corollary, if the headlines and commentators are convinced of imminent disaster, it won't happen.

The 'bullet' that hit the western world in 2008 came out of the blue for most commentators. They didn't see it coming. And the collapse of the Chinese economy, endlessly touted by financial commentators and bet on by hedge funds over the last decade - it hasn't happened yet.

Read more...

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