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Next Wednesday, up they go again... Print
Written by Site admin   
Thursday, 07 June 2018 20:01

The consensus is the Federal Reserve, at it's June FOMC meeting Wednesday 13th, will confirm the next US interest rate increase, from 1.75 to 2%:

fomcjune18

The consensus, 'dot' plot and forward guidance is as plain as day. But, today, the bond market just had a hissy fit...

30yrbondjune18

The standard 30 year US T Bond has been tumbling down this year. Interest rates do the opposite of course, moving on up as bonds slide. But just look at the chart. The chart bottomed on May 18th, rallied then tumbled again, until today, June 7th.

The 4 hour chart shows a major key revesal day, lower early in the day then higher than yesterday. Key reversals (or the candle version, Bullish Engulfing) are one of the strongest one day signals in the market.

What does this mean?

Maybe nothing more than traders liquidating their previous short position profits, just in case something unexpected comes out of the Fed minutes.

Or - the market just got the idea the Fed will change it's mind and delay the increase. The dollar will tank and stock markets will soar even higher. Stranger things have happened, just when everyone least expect it.

 

 

From the blog

Buy the rumour, sell the fact

Has it all been over cooked? The Trump US$ rally seems to have kicked off on the basis that his policies will be inflationary and so interest rates will have to rise. Added to this, the Fed has been telling us all year there will be at least a modest rate increase. Next Wednesday 14th is the last opportunity the Fed and Janet Yellen have to do the deed, consequently the market is convinced it's a done deal and priced it in with the Trump rally.

But the TMEST swing chart is suggesting the dollar rally could be rolling over. So we had best trade what we see and not what we think, or have been told to think!

Markets have a habit of rising on rumours of good news and then promptly reversing when it's actually announced, as further expectations of good news slip away. Perhaps the market is coming to the idea that the US economy, talked up over the last year is just that, talk.

If Trump is to boost the economy it's not going to happen instantly. Any delays, and if the US economy actually turns out to be weak at the start of 2017, could result in what usually happens in the year following a two term presidency. Recession.

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