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Crude Oil & the Dollar Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 29 January 2017 19:44

Crude Oil and the US Dollar have a long term correlation, it's inverse, so as the Dollar goes up, Oil goes down.

Since Trumps election we've had a break out and bull run in the Dollar and, if as seems likely, there will be a series of US interest rate rises this year, there's more strength to come. So, if the correlation is inverse and the Dollar rises, Crude Oil should fall, right?

WTIDXYJan17

On this chart I inverted the DXY, in red, so withe the correlation they should both be running in the same direction. Problem is, the correlation broke last May. Since then they've moved opposite the long term correlation and have, this month, started to converge again. As the arrows there should be much more of this to come. Either Crude falls or the Dollar strengthens.

 

From the blog

The NASDAQ takes a 500 point tumble...

 

The NASDAQ takes a 500 point tumble...

Markets thrive on uncertainty and that's exactly why these false break-outs work so well. The majority expect the new high to be just the start of the next trend wave. The warning signs were there, a combination of divergence, volume, wave count and Fibonacci

We just needed price action confirmation and this started with the bearish engulfing candle at the high. The next few days neatly set up the sell level as the Colour Charts confirmed. Then, tumble, it did.....

Where we are now is in the happy position of sitting on a very healthy profit. However, there are now warning signs of a possible rally that could evaporate those profits.

The prudent trader will be converting most of those paper profits into real ones, leaving just a small part of the trade on for the gamble of an even bigger move.

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