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Crude Oil & the Dollar Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 29 January 2017 19:44

Crude Oil and the US Dollar have a long term correlation, it's inverse, so as the Dollar goes up, Oil goes down.

Since Trumps election we've had a break out and bull run in the Dollar and, if as seems likely, there will be a series of US interest rate rises this year, there's more strength to come. So, if the correlation is inverse and the Dollar rises, Crude Oil should fall, right?

WTIDXYJan17

On this chart I inverted the DXY, in red, so withe the correlation they should both be running in the same direction. Problem is, the correlation broke last May. Since then they've moved opposite the long term correlation and have, this month, started to converge again. As the arrows there should be much more of this to come. Either Crude falls or the Dollar strengthens.

 

From the blog

Hammers and Shooting Stars

One of the very best Candle patterns is also the simplest to identify. The Hammer looks a little like one, it has a long lower wick/tail/shadow with a small head. Ideally, it is an up Candle, where the close is higher than the open, but that's not vitally important.

There are two important qualifiers. Firstly, it needs to be found in the right place and there also needs to be evidence of involvement. A Hammer is a reversal Candle, but only when it is found after a decline. At number of prior down bars must precede it. The second qualifier is involvement and that can be seen from observing the volume on futures or stocks, or tick activity with Forex charts. The higher the volume plot the better, but it should be at least greater than the average of the last three plus bars. Why is this? read on...

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