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Next Wednesday, up they go again... |
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Written by Site admin
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Thursday, 07 June 2018 20:01 |
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The consensus is the Federal Reserve, at it's June FOMC meeting Wednesday 13th, will confirm the next US interest rate increase, from 1.75 to 2%:
The consensus, 'dot' plot and forward guidance is as plain as day. But, today, the bond market just had a hissy fit...
The standard 30 year US T Bond has been tumbling down this year. Interest rates do the opposite of course, moving on up as bonds slide. But just look at the chart. The chart bottomed on May 18th, rallied then tumbled again, until today, June 7th.
The 4 hour chart shows a major key revesal day, lower early in the day then higher than yesterday. Key reversals (or the candle version, Bullish Engulfing) are one of the strongest one day signals in the market.
What does this mean?
Maybe nothing more than traders liquidating their previous short position profits, just in case something unexpected comes out of the Fed minutes.
Or - the market just got the idea the Fed will change it's mind and delay the increase. The dollar will tank and stock markets will soar even higher. Stranger things have happened, just when everyone least expect it.
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The NASDAQ takes a 500 point tumble... |
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Written by Site admin
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Friday, 30 March 2018 12:46 |
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The NASDAQ takes a 500 point tumble...
Markets thrive on uncertainty and that's exactly why these false break-outs work so well. The majority expect the new high to be just the start of the next trend wave. The warning signs were there, a combination of divergence, volume, wave count and Fibonacci
We just needed price action confirmation and this started with the bearish engulfing candle at the high. The next few days neatly set up the sell level as the Colour Charts confirmed. Then, tumble, it did.....
Where we are now is in the happy position of sitting on a very healthy profit. However, there are now warning signs of a possible rally that could evaporate those profits.
The prudent trader will be converting most of those paper profits into real ones, leaving just a small part of the trade on for the gamble of an even bigger move. |
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The NASDAQ keeps running |
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Written by Site admin
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Tuesday, 13 March 2018 16:50 |
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Way back, on the run up to the millenium, we had the tech boom. Add the word 'Internet' to any start up and away it went stock price rising into the stratosphere. Earnings, who needs earnings? You just needed the magic words, 'Internet start up' and the money cascaded in.
'It's different this time' was the cliche of the times, and it was - until it wasn't.
Where are we now? In another tech boom, 1800+ points above the last peak in 2000.
The soon to be available, Nasdaq Trading course indicators with the FibFinder add on are suggesting the time might just be ripe for a top. Notice how the Colour Charts do a great job of defing the momentum trend runs, and changing colour when it's prudent to take profits. It'll be time to take cover when the next candles turn red.
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Is the stock market rally now toast? |
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Written by Site admin
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Tuesday, 13 February 2018 14:24 |
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So is this the big one?
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Read more...
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Volatility - Vix - wow! |
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Written by Site admin
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Tuesday, 13 February 2018 14:19 |
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Well that was an exiting few days as the Vix broke out....
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Read more...
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